![]() Among experts, it’s widely accepted that India is overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation this year, but there is disagreement over exactly when this is occurring. While statisticians who assess human populations often look at census data, surveys and different models, there is wide room for interpretation. To be sure, MarketWatch is using just one approach for estimating the size of India’s population. A further breakdown of the data by hour for April 14, suggests the moment happened in the early hours of the day. Using the daily rate of change to make a projection, India is becoming the world’s most populous nation today. According to the UN data that shows the difference in population between January 1 and July 1, India is adding an average of about 36,470 people per day, while China’s population is falling, albeit slowly, losing about 983 people per day. How can we pick an exact date to mark the occasion? The answer can be found by comparing the rate of change of the population of both countries. Chinese demographers say India will become the worlds most populous country earlier than the United Nations projection of 2027, surpassing China where a steady drop in the birth rate has been recorded in the last few years. It’s a crude, but widely accepted approach. Without any other information between those dates, MarketWatch has looked at the rate of change per day to land on an exact date India has a larger population than China. 1 with a population of 1,425,849,288, but its population is projected to drop to 1,425,671,352 by July as China loses a total of almost 178,000 people. The UN’s population projections are then made for January 1 and July 1 of each year.Īs a result, the UN has projected that India’s population on Januwas 1,422,026,528 and will be 1,428,627,663 on July 1, 2023, an increase of over 6.6 million people. The data are collected from a variety of sources, depending on how a country assesses its own population. The UN collected data on the population of more than 200 countries and areas with at least 1,000 people in the previous year. The July 2022 report said only that India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country “sometime in 2023.” It underscores the need for effective population management strategies, sustainable development practices, and investments in social and economic infrastructure to ensure a prosperous future for the world's most populous nation.Today’s projection is based on data that was released in July 2022 in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects and a simple linear equation. The shift in global population dynamics carries significant implications for India, China, and the world at large. The country boasts famous attractions such as the Taj Mahal and the Amber Palace, which draw visitors from far and wide. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, India attracted approximately seven million tourists from around the world. India's population milestone also highlights the country's appeal as a tourist destination. ![]() Additionally, the country's infrastructure, resources, and environmental sustainability are under pressure due to the growing population. With a large youth population, India faces the challenge of providing adequate education, healthcare, and employment opportunities. ![]() India's status as the most populous country in the world has implications for various aspects, including social, economic, and environmental factors. Additionally, India contributes significantly to the global working-age population growth, accounting for 23% of the growth between 20. This is attributed to the considerable number of women entering their reproductive years in India. The margin between India and China's population is closing rapidly due to India's higher population growth rate. In terms of total area, India ranks seventh globally, while China is the largest country in Asia and the third largest country in the world. ![]() India covers an area of 3.287 million square kilometers, while China spans a massive 9.597 million square kilometers. It is noteworthy that India has managed to surpass China in population despite its significantly smaller land area. In contrast, China's population growth rate has been on the decline as well, experiencing a decline after reaching a peak of 1.426 billion inhabitants in 2022. However, India's population growth rate has been declining, reaching its lowest level since 1960 at 0.61 percent in 2023. The population growth in both India and China has been slowing down, but India's growth rate is still higher than China's.
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